Morgan Stanley has revealed its 2015 sales estimates for the upcoming Apple Watch, stating expected first year sales in the range of 10-30 million units. At the high end of the range, that would equate to roughly 10% of all iOS users who own an iPhone 5 or better (the required cutoff for Apple Watch pairing).
While 30 million Apple Watch sales seems like a lot, according to Morgan Stanley, its estimate could be too conservative:
“Our 30M Apple Watch unit estimate in CY15 [Calendar Year 2015] is at the high end of consensus and arguably still conservative. Street estimates run the gamut,with most ranging between 10M and 30M units in the first year. We believelooking at penetration into the Apple installed base yields the most realistic assessment of demand potential of the Watch. Our 30M unit estimate implies 10% penetration into Apple’s 315M iPhone 5 or newer installed base exiting 2014, which is lower than iPad penetration of 14% in its first year.”
The biggest variable to affect Apple Watch sales next year will obviously be the release date for the smartwatch. If ‘early 2015’ means April rather than February, as many expect, Morgan Stanley’s prediction may not be so conservative.