RBC predicts iPhone SE will drive 15M incremental sales in 2016

After the iPhone SE’s successful first few weeks of sales, RBC Capital Markets Analyst Amit Daryanani has issued a note to investors stating its likely Apple will sell 40 million units of the phone in 2016.

He estimates this is approximately 15 million more sales than would have occurred without the launch of the 4-inch offering. Daryanani believes this will drive 23 cents in earnings per share for Apple in 2016.

This note follows his forecast a month prior, which was similarly optimistic. Many analysts, including KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo, were not so confident that the launch of the SE would translate to a meaningful increase in sales. The shortages in SE stock that have occurred this past three weeks, however, point to a strong start for the little phone.

As reports filter in, the 64 GB version is purportedly harder to come by in stores than the 16 GB, a surprising turn of events but one that points to the necessity for mobile storage. It should be noted that these reports are American. MobileSyrup has reached out tonBell, Telus and Rogers to inquire about whether they were experiencing similar shortages.

The Apple site itself says the new phone is available to ship within 7-10 business days.

The 64 GB model of the SE at Bell is currently priced at $230 down on a 2-year contract or $730 outright. Rogers shares the contract pricing but is selling the phone outright at $709. Telus is offering the 64 GB SE at $130 with a plan $95 a month or higher, and offering the same outright price as Bell at $730.

The big three’s current outright pricing of the SE is almost exactly the same as the iPhone 5S’s full retail price was before the launch of the new 4-inch phone.

For the 16 GB model, the pricing is set at $99 on a 2-year contract or $590 outright –$580 at Rogers. Telus is offering the 16 GB model at $0 on a plan $95 per month or higher.

At the Q1 2016 conference call in January with Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook and Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri, it was noted that 60 percent of Apple’s install base had not yet upgraded to an iPhone 6 or 6S series. This market is likely the demographic driving the sales of the iPhone SE.

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[source]Apple Insider[/source]