It is known: researchers create algorithm to predict Game of Thrones deaths

Game of Thrones Season 8

Researchers at the Technical University of Munich have harnessed the predictive power of algorithms to determine the outcome of one of life’s greatest mysteries (for the next six weeks or so): who is going to die in season eight of HBO’s Game of Thrones.

Using data found in the various fan Wikis as well as the books and television episodes, the team at Rostlab have determined the potential of fatally bad news for your favourite characters — but you knew that was coming anyways.

Of course, the critical question is who is on that list. Beware, spoilers for previous seasons follow.

The team had demonstrated its chops in 2016 by creating algorithmic predictions for the sixth season of the show. Admittedly, that year the group had put Daenerys’ chance of death at a solid 95 percent—and we know she’s still kicking—but the researchers did get unfortunate fates of Petyr Baelish, Tommen and Stannis Baratheon correct. Additionally, the algorithms predicted that Jon Snow would return after his repeated perforations.

This year, the team has Lannister-right-hand-man Bronn as the most likely to bite it at 93.5 percent and Gregor “The Mountain” Clegane at 80 percent. Sansa Stark is also high on the list at 73.3 percent, due to contributing factors like being born in Winterfell and was married once already. On the opposite side of things, Queen of Dragons Daenerys and Tyrion Lannister were found to be the most likely survivors at 0.9 percent and 2.5 percent chance of death, respectively.

The researchers used two different kinds of data analysis to come to conclusions about a character’s percentage likelihood of death, or PLOD. The first was through a Bayesian Inference which determined the chance of survival by comparing statistics including what house the characters belong to, who they married, their titles and gender, and if they played major or minor parts in the series.

Another was a neural network, which could be used to suss out more complex correlations in the collected information—correlations beyond the ability of a human to locate. The researchers said that the neural net could produce some of the most surprising outcomes.

Time will only tell how accurate these predictions end up being, with the final season of Game of Thrones airing at 9pm ET/6pm PT every Sunday for subscribers of HBO as well as on Bell’s Crave streaming platform. Just in time for the new season, Crave now streams in 1080p on iOS, Android and Xbox One. Previously stream quality was locked to 720p for most content, with Apple’s 4th-generation Apple TV being the only device to support 1080p.

Source: Technical University of Munich